In the world of finance, all eyes will be on the debut of SpaceX as a public company this Friday.
This IPO will likely far exceed any previous IPO in terms of market capitalization—and, even though it can’t be measured, in hype as well.
The hype is understandable. The company is doing things that once seemed reserved for science fiction movies.
If someone wanted to take a definitive stance on SpaceX as a public company and how the shares will perform, there’s plenty of articles supporting both a bull and bear case.
What interests me most isn’t how shares trades, but how investors react once trading begins.
Nobody knows how the shares will trade an hour, a week, or a year after they come public.
What fascinates me is that through this IPO process, everyone will have access to the same information.
That won’t stop thousands, maybe millions of investors from coming to completely different conclusions.
Some investors will likely be looking for a quick pop or drop, while others might believe that investing in shares is a generational opportunity—regardless of the price.
The timeless lesson here is that people typically become interested in investments after a company has become successful.
This is not unique to SpaceX.
SpaceX may go on to become an incredible public company. It may not. Nobody knows.
The challenge for investors is that future returns will be determined by what the company accomplishes next, not by what it has already accomplished.
Investing is about the future, and the future is always filled with uncertainty. No amount of hype changes that.